Kurzweil published The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology in 2005 and predicted that human life will be transformed to transcend the current biological limitations from 2045 on. More and more people believe in the technological singularity as artificial intelligence approaches human intelligence. But is his Singularitarianism worth believing? Here I critically examine whether his prediction is correct or not.
The original sense of “paradigm” is “exemplar” and Kuhn’s “paradigm” signifies such a textbook theory or an experiment method as students imitate as an exemplar in their scientific education. Normal science engages scientists in puzzle-solving based on a paradigm, which is more economically rational than the frequent revolutions. Even in scientific revolutions new paradigms succeed to the old ones continuously. What changes drastically in a revolution is not the paradigm itself but the balance of power between paradigms. Like political revolutions, scientific revolutions are the struggle for existence and paradigms do not shift to copy the reality better.
The survival of our systems depends on getting the low-entropy resource from the environment, throwing the high-entropy waste into the environment, and maintaining the low-entropy structure against the environment. That is why the fluctuation of the environment has changed human history. Environmental history is now in fashion thanks to the rise of environmentalism, but I would like to reconstruct environmental history in terms of my theory of entropy.